MATERNAL MORTALITY PROJECTION FOR THE NETHERLANDS USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for the Netherlands from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain very low over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to relentlessly address local causes of avoidable maternal deaths and continue routine surveillance of severe maternal morbidity.