UTILIZING FORECASTS GENERATED BY HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD TO INFORM MATERNAL HEALTH POLICY IN SUDAN
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Sudan from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to fall but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address major drivers of maternal mortality and direct more effort towards quality improvement programs across the country.
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