ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FORECASTING FOR SURINAME USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Suriname from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.3 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will drop from around 97 in 2024 to about 45 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to relentlessly attend to major drivers of maternal deaths and channel more resources towards implementation of quality improvement strategies.
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