DETECTION OF FUTURE TRENDS OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR TANZANIA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Tanzania from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR is expected to increase and also remain very high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
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