METHODOLOGICAL BASIS OF USING ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND MONITORING SYSTEMS IN INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF STATE ECONOMIC SECURITY

Abstract

This article examines the methodological basis of using econometric models and monitoring systems in the integral assessment of state economic security. The study focuses on the need to evaluate economic security not only through separate macroeconomic indicators, but also through a complex system of interrelated quantitative, institutional and structural factors. In the context of globalization, external shocks, financial instability, digital transformation and regional differentiation, the assessment of economic security requires a reliable methodological framework that combines statistical analysis, econometric modeling and integral index construction. The article substantiates the importance of monitoring systems as a practical tool for identifying risks, measuring the dynamics of economic security indicators and supporting evidence-based economic policy. Special attention is paid to the formation of an integral assessment mechanism that allows the comparison of regions, identification of vulnerable areas and development of preventive measures. The proposed approach may contribute to improving the quality of strategic planning, strengthening macroeconomic stability and increasing the effectiveness of public economic management.