ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE APPROXIMATION FOR VIETNAM USING HOLT’S LINEAR APPROACH
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Vietnam from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to fall and reach levels around 29 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities relentlessly address local causes of maternal deaths across the country.
References
1.Ministry of Health (2000). National Strategy on Reproductive Health Care 2001-2010. Resolution No 136/QD-TTg by Priminister at November 28, 2000; 2000.
2.Ministry of Health (2002). Maternal Mortality in Vietnam 2000 2001: an in-depth analysis of causes and determinant. MoH; 2002.
3.Ministry of Health (2003). Decision by Minister of Health on the Approval of National Plan of Safe Motherhood in Vietnam 2003 - 2010. 5792/2003/QD-BYT, 2003.
4.Ministry of Health (2012). National Plan for Reproductive Health, focusing on Safe Motherhood and Newborn Care 2011-2015. 2718/QD-BYT, 2012.
5.World Health Organization (2005). Maternal Mortality in Vietnam 2000-2001: An In-depth Analysis of Causes and Determinants. Geneva: WHO; 2005.
