FORECASTING MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for the United Kingdom (UK) from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain low over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to relentlessly address local causes of maternal deaths and continue routine surveillance of severe maternal morbidity.
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