TRACKING THE FUTURE PATH OF MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR SERBIA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Serbia from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.4 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will hover around 15 deaths per 100 000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to tirelessly address major drivers of preventable maternal deaths.
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