PROJECTION OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR THE PHILIPPINES USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for the Philippines from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.3 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will fall from around 94 in 2024 to about 78 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to improve the quality of maternal health services, ensure availability of medical supplies and staff and review & reconfigure the current maternal health policy to suite the current needs of the population.
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