PREDICTION OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR PORTUGAL USING THE HOLT’S LINEAR TECHNIQUE
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Portugal from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will slightly increase but still remain below 20 deaths per 100 000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of maternal mortality.
References
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