MATERNAL MORTALITY FORECASTING FOR NEPAL USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Nepal from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to fall to reach levels below 30 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to direct resources towards quality improvement activities.
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