PREDICTION OF MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR SAMOA USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Samoa from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will hover around 100 deaths per 100 000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of maternal mortality and direct more resources towards the implementation of quality improvement strategies.
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