MATERNAL MORTALITY FORECASTING FOR SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Sao Tome and Principe from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.7 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will decline from around 70 in 2024 to levels below 10 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address major drivers of maternal deaths.
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