PREDICTING FUTURE VALUES OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR PAKISTAN USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Pakistan from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will decline from around 147.6 in 2024 to about 65 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.