PREDICTION OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR SINGAPORE USING THE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL
Keywords:
Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Singapore from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes single exponential smoothing model. The optimal value of the smoothing constants α is based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will hover around 15 deaths per 100 000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to relentlessly address local drivers of maternal mortality.
References
1.GBD (2015). 2015 risk factors collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet. 2015; 386:2287–323. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/ S0140- 6736(15) 00128-2.
2.Lopez A.D., Mathers C.D., Ezzati M., Jamison D.T., and Murray C.J.L (2006). Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data. Lancet. 2006; 367:1747–57. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/ S0140- 6736(06) 68770-9.
3.Ratnam SS (1984). Health care for all mothers and infants by 2000 AD. Aust N Z J Obstet Gynaecol. 1984; 24:236–41. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1111/j. 1479- 828x. 1984. tb015 02.x.
4.The World Bank (2021). Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) – Singapore (2021). https:// data. world bank. org/ indicator/ SP. DYN. IMRT. IN? locations= SG (Accessed August 7, 2021).
5.WHO (2019). World Health Organization, UNICEF, United Nations Population Fund, World Bank Group and the United Nations Population Division. Maternal mortality: Levels and trends 2000 to 2017. https:// www. who. int/ reproductive health/ publications/ maternal- mortality- 2000- 2017/ en/ (Accessed 7 Aug. 2021).
6.WHO (2023). The Global Health Observatory Explore a world of health data [Internet].
7.World Health Organization (2015). (WHO) Factsheet/maternal health topic. [accessed 2015 Dec 11]. Available from: www.who.int/ topics/maternal health/en/.
