MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE APPROXIMATION FOR SYRIA USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Syria from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will drop from around 20 in 2024 to about 15 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to attend to local causes of preventable maternal deaths across the country.
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