ANAYLSIS OF FUTURE TRENDS OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR TURKMENISTAN USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Turkmenistan from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain very low over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local drivers of maternal mortality.
References
1.McCall S.J., Nair M., and Knight M (2017). Factors associated with maternal mortality at advanced maternal age: a population-based case-control study. BJOG. 2017;124(8):1225–33. h t t p s: / / d o i. o r g / 1 0. 1 1 1 1 / 1 4 7 1 - 0 5 2 8. 1 4 2 1 6.
2.WHO (2015). Health in 2015 from MDGs to SDGs. Geneva. h t t p s: / / a p p s. w h o. i n t / i r i s / h a n d l e / 1 0 6 6 5 / 2 0 0 0 0 9.
3.WHO (2023). The Global Health Observatory Explore a world of health data [Internet]
4.World Health Organization (2012). ICD-10: international statistical classification of diseases and related health Problems—Application to deaths during Pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium (ICD-MM). Geneva
5.World Health Organization (2015). (WHO) Factsheet/maternal health topic. [accessed 2015 Dec 11]. Available from: www.who.int/ topics/maternal health/en/.
