THE INFLUENCE OF GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS ON THE TRANSFORMATION OF INTERNATIONAL TOURIST FLOWS
Keywords:
International tourism, geopolitical risk, sanctions, armed conflicts, transformation of tourist flows, GPR, tourism sustainability.Abstract
This paper summarizes theoretical approaches based on the concepts of perceived risk and destination substitution, and systematizes the empirical results of modern studies using quantitative indicators of geopolitical tension, in particular the Geopolitical Index. Risk (GPR). It is shown that geopolitical shocks impact tourism through a combination of interconnected channels: security, institutional constraints, transport and logistics, financial and economic factors, and the information environment, causing not only a decline in demand but also its spatial redistribution. It is substantiated that a decline in tourist flows in "risk zones" is accompanied by a substitution effect in favor of more stable and safe destinations, leading to a change in the geography of international tourism and increased regionalization of demand.
