THE IMPACT OF REMITTANCE INFLOWS ON GDP GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: AN OLS REGRESSION ANALYSIS (2005–2023)
Keywords:
Remittances, GDP growth, Uzbekistan, OLS regression, economic growth, labor migration, macroeconomic stability, foreign direct investment.Abstract
This study explores the effect of remittance inflows on economic growth in Uzbekistan from 2005 to 2023. As one largest receiver of remittances in Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic stability is highly benefited from external transfers. Using annual time-series data, this study employs an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model to analyze the impact of remittances on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The results suggest a statistically significant positive correlation between remittance inflows and GDP growth, indicating that these funds prevent external shocks and serve a source of capital for the consumption of citizens and investment. However, the study also indicates the potential risks of dependency on volatile migration flows. Policy recommendations cover diversifying financial sources to reduce the risk of reliance on remittances and directing these funds into productive projects via financial inclusion initiatives.
