ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE PROJECTION FOR NIGER USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Niger from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to fall but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
References
1.IGME (2018). Levels trend in child mortality: estimates developed by the estimates developed by the UN inter- agency group for UN inter- agency group for child mortality estimation child mortality estimation. United Nations Inter- Group for Child Mortality Estimation 2018.
2.Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Système d’Alerte Précoce (SAP). Enquete Conjointe sur La Vulnerabilite a L’Insecurite Alimentaire des Menages au Niger. 2017.
3.Ministere du Plan. Plan de Developpement Economique et social (PDES) 2022- 2006. volume I- diagnostic Stratégique. 2022.
4.The World Bank (2022). Poverty and Inegality platform (PIP). Available: https://pip.worldbank.org/country-profiles/NER
5.UN Inter- agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. Neonatal mortality rate. 2020. Available: https://childmortality.org/data/Niger
6.UNICEF (2015). United Nations inter- agency group for child mortality estimation (UN IGME), ‘levels & trends in child mortality’, United Nations children’s Fund. New York UNICEF WHO World Bank Group United Nations.
7.United Nations Development Program (2022). Human development reports. Human Development Index (HDI); 2022. Available: https://hdr.undp. org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI
8.United Nations Population Division. World population prospects: 2022 revision. Niger Population total; 2022.
