TRACKING FUTURE TRENDS OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALTY RATE FOR SAUDI ARABIA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Saudi Arabia from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain very low over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of maternal mortality.
References
1.Aamir F., Fasih A., Mahesh A., and Charles E (2012). A comparative review of maternal morbidity and perinatal outcome in booked and un-booked mothers. Pak J Surg 28(4):280–4.
2.Al-Meshari A., Chattopadhyay S.K., Younes B., and Hassonah M (1996). Trends in maternal mortality in Saudi Arabia. Int J Gynecol Obstet 1996;52(1):25–32. Doi: 10.1016/0020 7292(95)02556-1.
3.EBCOG Scientific Committee (2015). The Public Health Importance of Antenatal Care. Facts, Views Vis ObGyn 2015;7(1):5.
4.Harrison K.A (1988). Maternal mortality--a sharp er focus on a major issue of our time. Trop J Obs Gynaecol 1(1):9–13.
5.Owalabi T., Fatusi A., Kuti O., Adeyemi A., Faturoti S., and Obiajuwa P (2008). Maternal complica tions and perinatal outcomes in booked and unbooked Nigerian mothers. Orig Artic Singapore Med J 2008;49(7):526.
6.Rouzi A., Sahly N., Kafy A.M., Alamoudi R.A., Abualsaud R.M., Alsheri W.A (2023). Mortality outcomes between pregnant women booked for antenatal care and unbooked preg nant women. Ann Saudi Med 2023; 43(6): 357-363. DOI: 10.5144/0256 4947.2023.357.
7.Tucker A., Ogutu D., Yoong W., Nauta M., and Fakokunde A (2009). The unbooked mother: a co hort study of maternal and foetal outcomes in a North London Hospital. Arch Gynecol Obstet 2009 2814 2009;281(4):613–6. Doi: 10.1007/S00404-009-1152-7.
8.World Health Organization (2021). WHO recommendations on antenatal care for a positive pregnancy experience. https://apps.who. int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/250796/97 892415?sequence=1. Accessed December, 2021.
