APPLICATION OF HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD IN FORECASTING ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR VENEZUELA
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Venezuela from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will increase and remain very high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local drivers of maternal deaths and channel more resources towards quality improvement initiatives.
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