MAKING USE OF SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL PREDICTIONS TO INFORM MATERNAL HEALTH STRATEGIES IN RWANDA
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Rwanda from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes single exponential smoothing model. The optimal value of the smoothing constants α is 0.3 based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain very high hovering around 249 deaths per 100 000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
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