APPROXIMATION OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR SRI LANKA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Sri Lanka from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to fall and reach levels around 12 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to relentlessly address main drivers of maternal deaths and direct some of the resources towards quality improvement activities.
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