ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FORECASTING FOR THAILAND USING THE HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Thailand from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.2 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR is expected to increase from around 52 in 2024 to about 79 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to attend to local causes of maternal deaths and channel more resources towards the implementation of quality improvement activities.
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