PROJECTING MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR UKRAINE USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Ukraine from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain low over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local factors associated with maternal mortality.
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